The 1st energy studies Think-Tank in Romania.

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Teodor Chirica

Brexatom – anxiety and ramifications | Research paper | 08/14/2017

This paper examines the implications of Brexit on the nuclear industry, in particular the meaning and manifold consequences of Brexatom (a term which designates Britain’s withdrawal from the Euratom Treaty), since a less known fact is that triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty also means a withdrawal from the Euratom Treaty. The paper explains the views and positions of the key stakeholders (British nuclear industry, MPs, scientists, think tank experts, FORATOM) and outlines the importance of transitional arrangements until a successor framework is put in place, especially if the United Kingdom will not be seeking an associate membe......

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Eugenia Gusilov

Clean Energy for All Europeans – a view from Romania on the new governance Regulation | Policy Analysis | 07/11/2017

The proposed Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union is part of the legislative package “Clean Energy for All Europeans” presented by the European Commission (EC) on November 30, 2016. The Governance Regulation (as the entire package) has to do with the EU 2030 Climate and Energy framework targets, and acts as a “holding” structure to ensure policy alignment on commitments that the EU has made under the Paris Agreement. These commitments have been made by the EU as a whole, but their implementa...

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George Visan

Romania’s Naval Forces at crossroads | Policy Paper | 03/14/2017

This paper assesses the capabilities of the Romanian Navy in light of latest military and security developments in the Black Sea. It provides an insight on the background, current shape and modernization plans for the Romanian navy and its components (the 56th Frigate Flotilla, the naval aviation capability, the 50th Corvette Squadron, the 150th Naval Missile Squadron, the 146th mine warfare squadron, Romania’s Danube flotilla, and the special ops squadron) and concludes with recommendations for the future development of the service.

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Eugenia Gusilov

Romania’s Energy Strategy | OP-ED | 03/07/2017

 

The final Energy strategy document published by the Energy Ministry reads more like an energy outlook than an energy strategy. To be fair, the effort to gather statistical data, engage in modeling, scenario and sensitivity analysis must be commended as is a much-welcomed break with the hitherto monopoly of one state institute (ISPE) that authored all Romania’s energy strategy documents in the past. However, in this opinion article I would like to focus on some aspects that can be improved.

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ROEC Multiple Authors

NATO Warsaw Summit & Beyond | Special report | 10/17/2016

A constellation of disruptive factors looms on the horizon: Brexit, U.S. elections and the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency, then there are the unusual events in Turkey this summer. The “black swan” events are multiplying and challenge established conventions. This Special Report is a unique collection of views on key security issues facing the North Atlantic Alliance and its members. The architecture of the Report is designed around four topics: the A2/AD issue after the Warsaw Summit, a discussion of ballistic missile defense in Europe, nuclear deterrence and Turkey.

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Octavian Manea  & Armand Gosu

Romania’s relations with USA and Russia | Research paper | 08/18/2016

The essay looks at how Romania’s relations with USA and Russia evolved since 1989 until today. Where they were at the beginning of 1990s, how they developed in the first post-communist decade, what were its main drivers in the following decade and what is the status today. The world is now a very different place compared to 25 years ago: there is more chaos, more challenges, and less stability. The article uses a historical perspective to highlight elements of continuity and those of novelty in Romania’s post communist foreign policy. It identifies factors that define the current global context and understand how Romania is positioning towards them, what is its present agenda, what are the big international dossiers of interest and how does Romania view and manage the relationship with the two key stakeholders in the system: Russia (superpower in decline, current geopolitical challenger) and USA (current superpower, in retreat, no more willing to step in to solve every crisis)

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George Visan

Romanian defense and security: an in-depth perspective | Research paper | 06/25/2016

This essay deals with the security challenges faced by Romania in the near and medium term, both at regional and global level. Outside security risks can be augmented by internal vulnerabilities, therefore Romania’s security situation is assessed from the perspective of its internal political dynamic as well as that of current external threat such as the Ukrainian crisis, a resurgent Russia, the migrant crisis and combating terrorism. A special attention is given to defense issues, in particular: defense planning, strategic partnerships and defense procurement. The analysis offers an honest review of positive and negative developments, strengths and weaknesses alike, successful as well as failed initiatives, and offers a set of recommendations for improving Romania’s security policy and strengthening existing partnerships.

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Stefan Popescu

Romania in 2030 and 2050: What demographics tells us? | OP-ED | 06/21/2016

Kenneth E. F. Watt, a professor at University of California Davis, published a book 42 years ago titled «The Titanic Effect: Planning for the unthinkable» (Sinauer Associates Inc.,U.S., 1974) in which he argued that the passengers on the famous ship, considered at the dawn of the XXth century to be the safest in the world, made the mistake to think that it was unsinkable. So do many of those that hold in their hands the fate of a community or a country and think that inaction or bad action has no long term effect from one election cycle to another, to say nothing about the possibility of a collapse at a given moment. The impression is due to the fact that the decline of nations does not happen abruptly, but slowly. This is the reason why the problems of the future, if pessimistic, are not liked at all. The future shall be looked upon only with optimism or not at all! Nobody can know what will be in 10, 20 or 30 years, the politician would say.

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Eugenia Gusilov

Energy sector reform in Ukraine (2014-2016) | Research Paper | 06/15/2016

The paper tracks the unfolding domestic reform in Ukraine. Despite Crimea’s annexation and the war in the East, Ukraine made genuine progress in implementing much delayed economic reform, but starting slow-walking through the process in 2016 drawing the ire of its foreign partners and domestic civil society. The analysis maps the stakeholders involved in this accelerated modernization process, assesses the relation with the International Financial Institutions, the EU, the USA and Energy Community, and makes an inventory of achievements and failures of this steep reform process. The paper takes stalk of the progress in the energy sector and looks into status of institutional reforms with a focus on energy sector: changes in policy, in governance of state-owned enterprises, involvement of young Ukrainians/expats. A particular focus is devoted to bilateral relations with Ukraine’s EU Member State neighbors – Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania – in an effort to see how they evolved since the 2014 Revolution of Consciousness as well as what exactly each of these countries did to assist Ukraine since. Finally, it offers a quick assessment on current state, mood and direction of Ukraine’s energy relation with Russia.

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ROEC Multiple Authors

Black Sea – In Access Denial Age | Special report | 01/25/2016

Anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubbles are emerging around the world, including in the Black Sea. They can alter the security equation and weaken the Western deterrence capital. How will the NATO alliance choose to respond to these new emerging trends in its near abroad? What is the appropriate military and non-military response to hybrid warfare? A hybrid warfare calls for a hybrid defense, and hybrid defense requires also non-military means: a whole-of-government approach, a mix of soft and hard power tools, civilian and military cultures, state-centric and private (NGOs and media) instruments, in order to minimize opportunities already in-place that a foreign power can exploit to its advantage. Crimea and Eastern Ukraine are the battlefield for a different type of war: non-linear warfare that uses insurrection - a direct influence of Evgenyi Messner’s writings on Russian contemporary military thinking. This Special Report focuses on three dimensions: implications of Crimea’s militarization for the Black Sea and NATO’s potential offset strategy, implications of hybrid warfare, and economic implications of the new geopolitical layout in the Black Sea (in particular, upstream access denial for Ukraine).

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