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Eugenia Gusilov | Director

17Apr 2026

Digi24

My dialogue yesterday with Cristi Citre, at Digi24, about the kerosene crisis in European civil aviation and about the IMF's recommendation that governments not reduce taxes. The main ideas: - it is too early to be happy, a fact confirmed by the events of today (Saturday) when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, not even a day after the so-called "opening". It didn't even last a day. ... - the aviation fuel crisis does not affect everyone in the same way. The countries with major aviation hubs (London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam) will be more affected, even if the respective countries have refineries, since the demand in these aviation connection nodes exceeds the production of kerosene in the respective countries. On the other hand, there are countries that cover their needs (Poland, Romania, Greece). Just as there are countries that are 100% vulnerable and dependent on imports (the Republic of Moldova for example), but also countries where there were refineries but which were closed in the last decades as a result of environmental policies (Great Britain had, for example, 18 refineries in the 70s, and now has only 4). - the IMF recommendation for governments (the one with "Don't reduce taxes") must take into account the level of taxation existing in the respective country before the onset of this crisis. The situations differ, we cannot go by general recommendations, but we must take into account the individual situations. - all in all, we can't relax yet. The black-and-white game with our nerves and wallets will continue, especially now that Iran has learned that blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a more powerful weapon even than the possession of nuclear weapons.

15Apr 2026

Digi24

My comment yesterday, April 15, for Digi24 about: - the announcement regarding the reopening of the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in 45 days - a return to normal rather than a "great success" as presented by the Romanian authorities; - the IMF warning regarding the possibility of an average oil price of 125 usd/barrel in 2027. How does this translate for Romania and our economy? Constantly high energy prices mean inflation, inflation means reduced purchasing power, amputated consumption, reduced lending to companies, layoffs, closing of production units, companies entering conservation/survival mode, deferred investments, jobs that are not made, less taxes collected by the state. Practically, the wheels of the economy slow down a lot and some even stop.

14Apr 2026

Digi24

Yesterday, April 14, on Digi24, in the Evening Journal, talking with Cosmin Prelipceanu about the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: the Iranian blockade and the American counter-blockade. I don't know if the "who takes whom out" approach will bear fruit in the present case. Rather, we are heading into even more complicated territory. One madness cannot be solved with ... another madness. Two anti-access strategies in the same strait cannot calm the oil markets. On the contrary. #HormuzStrait #iranianblockade #TrumpBlockade

14Apr 2026

Digi24

My intervention on April 14, at Digi24, in which I went into more detail about what the worst scenario would look like. This crisis is not only about fuels, but about a very wide range of refined products where we can face a shortage: from plastics to bitumen and asphalt or helium which is used in the manufacture of semiconductors. Why is this moment dangerous? Because the current confrontation in the Middle East is a geopolitical Molotov cocktail: very explosive, between two radical camps and which, if left unresolved, will affect everyone in ways we can't even imagine. Exactly as Fatih Birol said (from the IEA: "No country is immune to this problem".

08Apr 2026

Euronews

A collage of my intervention at "Vocile care conteaza" from April 8, at Euronews Romania. Main ideas: - We need a permanent solution, not a temporary one for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire agreement is for 2 weeks, and 2 weeks does not mean permanent... - The resumption of the flow through the straits against the amount of 2 million dollars/tanker sounds more like the "protection fee" specific to the 90s in the post-Soviet space, by no means a legitimate transit regime. - the unpredictability of the Trump administration is part of the problem - The absence of 13 million barrels/day from the market will start to be felt more and more as commercial and strategic stocks are depleted. But the impact will be uneven, mainly affecting the poorer countries in Asia and Africa. See more

08Apr 2026

Digi24

April 8, 2026, at Digi24, talking about the ray of hope offered by the 2-week armistice. A welcome respite (to which the markets reacted positively), but which will have to be followed by a serious regime for the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

06Apr 2026

TVR Info

Monday, April 6, on Banii azi, TVR News discussing with Catalin Deacu about: - President Basescu's statement about the rationalization of diesel and where I think the rationalization should start - why is the price important in a country like Romania - the overtaxation practiced by the Romanian state on fuel... - the factor that aggravates the Hormuz crisis, namely the attacks on Russian oil export terminals - the duration of aid at the pump offered in other countries. See more

06Apr 2026

Digi24

My interaction on Monday, April 6, at Digi24. I spoke with Anca Orheian about: - the (premature) rationalization scenario. Rather, we will have a "soft", voluntary rationalization. Anyway, at the level of individual/family consumption, there are already decisions to reduce car trips. But the state could use this crisis as a good opportunity to make fuel consumption more efficient and impose stricter rules for fuel settlement in the governmental/administrative apparatus. - prices: they remain a big problem. Romania's landing in the club of countries that pay the most for fuel worldwide (!) is totally inappropriate and does not correspond to our economic reality. This is NOT our club, our membership in this group is NOT justified and we must get out of there immediately. The fiscal aggressiveness of the Romanian state can bring it a short-term gain (deficit reduction), but it can create long-term loss and consequences (at best, economic contraction, at worst - bringing extremist forces to power). Careful! Individuals and economic operators who have built up fuel reserves in the context of this crisis: fuel must be kept in appropriate conditions - optimal temperature of 21 degrees Celsius, stored in a dry place, without moisture, without contact with water, because it can spoil.

06Apr 2026

Moldova 1

My discussion yesterday, with Radu Osipov, on TV Moldova1, about the Romanian refineries and how we can get through this period better. Romania's refineries: 1. Petromidia - the largest in the country. Refining capacity: 5.4 million tons (Mt) of crude oil/year. It came out of the technical review and is working... 2. Petrobrazi - the second largest. Refining capacity: 4.5 Mt/year. It works. A partial overhaul (only at one installation) took place in the second part of March. 3. Petrotel-Lukoil - the third largest refinery in the country. Refining capacity: 2.5 Mt/year. It remains closed. From November 2025. Moldova should not rely entirely on Romania during this period, especially for the diesel supply. Diversification is the key word this time as well. On the other hand, Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries and export terminals aggravate the problem, because they remove from the market certain volumes that otherwise (legally or illegally) supplied the regional market. Ukraine has no other solution than to continue hitting Russia's "war chest". What can we do? The only thing available to consumers is to act on the demand/consumption side. Especially in countries that depend 100% on imports, such as the Republic of Moldova. That is, the adjustment of consumption, in the sense of its reduction.

06Apr 2026

Prima News

Monday, April 6, intervention by phone at PRIMA News. On the side: - rationalizations: We are not there yet. ... - the price. Here we had a more lively discussion, because I am not convinced by the argument that "Romania can't afford it" (with reference to the 30 bani reduction in the excise duty on motor oil). Because I see, on the other hand, that instead, he can afford salaries of over 10,000 euros/month in the state area. See more

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