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22Jul 2026

Wednesday, July 22, at B1.ro, in dialogue with Gabriela Mihai and Adrian Negrescu about the suspension of crude oil exports from Kazakhstan (the oil that came through the CPC pipeline), a situation that also affects Romania. The key question is: for how long does the export stop? The decision (to pause crude oil exports) comes as a precaution (who wants to see their goods burning?), but we cannot exclude any hidden reason (that of not wanting to antagonize its neighbor from the north - Russia, which ... asked for help with 50,000 tons of fuel, although normally Russia is the one that exports both crude oil and petroleum products). If exports do not resume within a reasonable time horizon, Romania could be in a situation where it will once again look for emergency solutions (new sources or new routes). Kazahtsan crude oil was itself the alternative solution (variant B) when we had to give up Russian crude oil in 2022, we replaced it mainly with Kazakh crude oil. Now, if the oil from Kazakhstan can no longer reach us, a "breakdown solution to the breakdown solution" must be found (that is, option C). The destruction of the Russian refining base will have a cascade effect on the global crude oil market, but also on the regional diesel market. The problem is deepening especially because there is no prospect of recovery (repair) of the Russian refineries. Who is crazy to invest in expensive repairs, when another drone attack comes tomorrow or next week and destroys again everything that was repaired?

21Jul 2026

TVR Info

My dialogue on Tuesday, July 21, with Catalin Deacu on "Banii azi" - TVR News, regarding the attack from July 20 to 21 on the ship "Gas Lisbon" that was transporting LPG to the port of Reni in Ukraine. We are in the 5th year of the war, and this one also has a maritime dimension, so we must expect more incidents of this type. The good part is that Romania has taken steps to close the legislative loopholes so that the MApN and the Naval Forces now have a more solid operational base that allows them to act to protect the critical infrastructure in the EEZ. As the Naval Forces will be equipped with more modern capabilities in the next period, we will probably see more proactive reactions in such cases.

21Jul 2026

At B1 Tv, on July 21, commenting on Morgan Stanley's assessment of the diesel market in Europe. The silence is over. The diesel market is the most exposed (gasoline is not a danger to us) because in parallel with the resumption of military countermeasures in the Strait of Hormuz, we have a suspension of diesel exports from Russia (the 2nd largest exporter of diesel globally). To which we can add the (hopefully temporary) suspension of crude oil exports from Kazakhstan (I said more about this in other interventions, which I will post).

21Jul 2026

Digi24

On July 21, at Digi24, about Europe's vulnerability when it comes to diesel. Within the continent, our region (South-Eastern Europe) has a high dependence of the car fleet (especially passenger vehicles, but also heavy transport and agricultural machinery) on diesel. The phenomenon of excessive dieselization is due to fiscal policies that for decades overcharged gasoline, forcing drivers to turn to diesel cars at the expense of gasoline ones. This structural legacy is what makes us more vulnerable today. The second factor is related to the fact that Europe does not cover its diesel needs only from what European refineries produce, so it is dependent on imports. The third factor is related to the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran says that the strait is closed, and the USA says that it is open. The fourth factor is related to the refining sector in Russia, heavily damaged by the Ukrainian drone attack. As a result, Russia banned the export of diesel fuel until the end of July. Moreover, Russia is looking to import diesel fuel from other countries. All this will complicate the diesel supply equation in the short term in our area.

19Jul 2026

Digi24

Sunday, July 19, on Digi24, with a comment on two aspects related to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: - the situation on the oil market was kept in check from March to July by the use of reserves (what the states removed from the strategic oil reserves), but this is a "false abundance"; - the real prospects for a geopolitical solution to the conflict are weak as long as the same regime remains in power in Tehran, which operates on the instructions left by the ayatollah and essentially continues the same political line.

17Jul 2026

Digi24

At Digi24, on the topic of aviation fuel, why Europe is the most vulnerable region, but also when the problems might appear (in the second part of August).

15Jul 2026

Digi24

In the morning journal, today at Digi24, about the resumption of military actions between Iran and the USA and how this affects the oil market, prices and what we are doing. The best filter through which we can look at what is happening is this: we are witnessing a conflict with variable geometry, between 2 irrational actors, whose behavior is very difficult to predict. We live in an absurd reality, therefore the result is extremely difficult to predict. What can we do? Let's adapt, be resilient (on an individual, societal, continental level), invest in alternatives (electric - especially those with purchasing power), embrace a more flexible fiscal policy so as not to antagonize the Romanian population to the extent that they vote "out of spite" with the extremists in the next elections.

14Jul 2026

Digi24

Today, July 14, on Digi24, in discussion with Anca Orheian about the cheapening that Romanians have never seen before and the new wave of price increases that come as a result of the events in the Middle East (where hostilities between Iranians and Americans resumed) on the one hand, but also from Russia, on the other. Ukraine's campaign of drone strikes on Russian refineries put about 1/3 of the refining capacity out of action, transforming Russia from an exporter into an importer of refined products and generating a fuel crisis more like in the 90s. The 2 factors - the competition between America and Iran for the role of "Guardian of the strait" (with the related "protection fee" for the safety of transit through the strait) and Russia that will seek to import refined products (since their refineries can no longer produce) are the 2 factors that will push prices up.

10Jul 2026

Digi24

Friday, July 10, Digi24, in dialogue with Cristi Citre, about crude oil and prices. As long as we have uncertainty on the external level (the Iranians and the Americans understand each other, they attack each other, and the Strait of Hormuz oscillates between open and closed), certainty could come from within, where the Romanian state has control over fiscal policy and could make life easier for Romanian drivers. I say this because the excise duty is 3 lei/liter on gasoline and 2.8 lei/liter on diesel regardless of the international Brent quotation, that is, when the quotation is $40/barrel and when it is $120/barrel, the excise duty is the same in Romania. The Romanian state, however, is moving forward with its rigid and aggressive fiscal policy. Those who expect "the best" to come only from the international market must understand that the long-term effects of the geopolitical episode have NOT been fixed yet. Even if the market has adapted incredibly well, the consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March have not been addressed yet. I used up from reserves. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at an all-time low. Stocks must be restored before entering another episode of geopolitical turbulence. Otherwise, at the next price shock, we might not cope as well. See more

09Jul 2026

Yesterday, July 9, on B1.ro, a wider discussion about Romania as a regional "leader" in fuel prices. B1.ro made some nice cartoons showing the comparative prices of petrol and diesel (Romania versus other countries) which were a good support for our discussion. The most perplexing aspect that emerges from the regional picture is how does Hungary (with a VAT of 27%) manage to have a lower diesel price than Romania (which has a VAT of 21%)?... The culprit is the excise tax, which has doubled in our country (compared to what it was 2 years ago). The inability of the state to collect revenues for the state budget cannot be solved by excessively taxing those who are still "alive" (from an economic point of view). By maintaining excessive taxation, the Romanian state hits directly on the middle class, which is sent to a precarious / subsistence regime.

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